Human drivers’ control quality in the first seconds after a handover is critical to shared-driving safety; potentially unsafe steering or pedal inputs therefore require detection and correction by the automated vehicle’s safety-fallback system. Yet performance in this window is vulnerable because cognitive states fluctuate rapidly, causing purely rationality-driven, cognition-unaware models to miss early control dynamics. We present an interpretable driver model grounded in bounded rationality with online adaptation that predicts early-stage control quality. We encode boundedness by embedding cognitive constraints in reinforcement learning and adapt latent cognitive parameters in real time via particle filtering from observations of driver actions. In a vehicle-in-the-loop study (n=41), we evaluated predictive performance and physiological validity. The adaptive model not only anticipated hazardous takeovers with higher coverage and longer lead times than non-adaptive baselines but also demonstrated strong alignment between inferred cognitive parameters and real-time eye-tracking metrics. These results confirm that the model captures genuine fluctuations in driver risk perception, enabling timely and cognitively grounded assistance.
ACM CHI Conference on Human Factors in Computing Systems